Since Bitcoin spot ETFs received regulatory approval, the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market has significantly improved, with investors and analysts widely focused on whether this signals the beginning of a new bull market cycle. The latest market report recently released by leading cryptocurrency trading and analysis platform BlockInsight provides professional insights on current trends for market participants through in-depth analysis of on-chain data and trading patterns.
BlockInsight’s data shows that since Bitcoin ETFs were approved in January this year, institutional capital has continuously flowed into the crypto market, with net inflows exceeding $15 billion. Unlike previous bull market cycles, the current market heating is more driven by institutional participation rather than retail investor sentiment. On-chain data shows that large transactions (transactions valued over $1 million) have increased by 73% over the past six months, while the growth in small transactions has been relatively moderate.
“The current market differs fundamentally from the 2020-2021 bull market,” BlockInsight noted in its report. “We observe more mature capital inflow patterns and more robust market structures, with investment decisions based more on fundamental analysis rather than speculative mindsets.”
BlockInsight analysts assessed the current market state by examining several key indicators. First is the UTXO age distribution (an indicator showing Bitcoin holding time), which shows that the proportion of long-term holders (holding for more than a year) has reached a historic high, accounting for 68% of the circulating supply. This data is typically viewed as a characteristic of the market accumulation phase, indicating “strong hands” confidence in long-term value.
“On-chain data shows that despite price increases, long-term holders have not significantly reduced their positions, which is consistent with patterns from the early stages of previous bull markets,” BlockInsight explained. “Historically, this holding behavior often signals more sustainable upward trends.”
Another important indicator is miner behavior. BlockInsight’s data indicates that miner reserves have recently stabilized, no longer selling newly mined Bitcoin on a large scale. This phenomenon is typically interpreted as miners holding optimistic views about future price movements. Meanwhile, the network hash rate (an indicator measuring Bitcoin network computing power) continues to reach new highs, showing mining investment remains strong.
Regarding exchange fund flows, BlockInsight observed a significant trend: over the past three months, Bitcoin reserves on major exchanges have continuously decreased, with over 450,000 Bitcoin flowing out. This indicates investors tend toward long-term holding rather than trading, usually considered a bullish signal.
“The continuous decline in exchange reserves, coupled with growing asset sizes in institutional-grade custody solutions, typically appears in the early stages of bull markets,” BlockInsight analyzed. “This pattern differs from purely speculative rises and more resembles capital reallocation.”
Derivatives market data also provides valuable perspectives. BlockInsight’s report points out that Bitcoin futures funding rates are in the moderately positive range, indicating the market is optimistic but has not yet shown excessive leverage. Implied volatility in the options market, while higher than stock markets, is at medium-low levels compared to historical cryptocurrency levels, reflecting relatively rational market expectations.
BlockInsight particularly focused on the impact of macroeconomic factors on the crypto market. The report notes that global economic uncertainty, inflationary pressure, and geopolitical risks in some regions have driven institutional and individual investors to seek Bitcoin as a hedging tool. At the same time, monetary policy adjustments by central banks in multiple countries have also provided a relatively favorable environment for risk assets.
On technical analysis, BlockInsight notes that Bitcoin has broken through several important resistance levels and formed solid support zones. According to their quantitative models, if Bitcoin can maintain above the current price range, it could challenge historical highs within the next 6 months.
“Technical indicators show that current price action patterns have obvious similarities to the early stages of past bull markets, though the pace may be more gradual,” the report states. “Compared to the past, we expect this cycle to exhibit lower volatility and longer duration.”
Looking ahead, BlockInsight presents three possible market scenarios. The base scenario predicts Bitcoin will steadily rise over the next 12 months, potentially reaching new historical highs; the optimistic scenario forecasts prices breaking historical highs within 6 months, driven by accelerated institutional adoption; the cautious scenario considers the possibility of a global economic recession, where Bitcoin might experience a significant correction before continuing upward.
BlockInsight also analyzed the expected performance of different types of crypto assets in the current market environment. The report believes Bitcoin may first benefit from the institutional adoption wave, while Ethereum and some large Layer 1 blockchains may stand out in more mature stages of the bull market. For small-cap tokens, the report advises investors to remain cautious, as the current market values fundamentals more than purely speculative narratives.
BlockInsight concludes: “Although multiple indicators suggest a new bull market cycle may have begun, market participants should remain rational, focusing on fundamental developments rather than short-term price fluctuations. Compared to previous cycles, the current market has stronger institutional participation and regulatory certainty, which may lead to price behaviors different from historical patterns.”
The report finally reminds investors that the crypto market still exhibits high volatility, and factors such as macroeconomic changes, regulatory developments, and technological advancements may significantly impact the market. BlockInsight commits to continuing monitoring key indicators and providing data-driven analytical insights to market participants.