The holiday period has come to an end, and Canadian politics are gripped by a single question: when will the country hear from Justin Trudeau?
Trudeau’s Disappearance from Public View
The Prime Minister has largely disappeared from public view since December 16, when Chrystia Freeland, his finance minister and once his most powerful ally in cabinet, resigned in devastating fashion with a public letter that criticized him.
Liberals Turn Up the Pressure on Trudeau to Quit
Lawmakers in his Liberal Party are keeping up the pressure on him to quit as the party’s polling numbers slide further. A new survey by Nanos Research, taken over the holiday period, has the Conservative Party extending its lead going into an election.
The Risks of Delaying a Decision
The longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. According to Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, "Until now it was primarily Justin Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged. I think now the big issue is how much damage will he inflict on the party brand because he is dragging out what looks like will be his resignation at one point or another."
The Road Ahead for the Liberal Party
Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government. The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19 percent of the popular vote, which translated into just 34 of 308 seats.
A Possible Scenario: Trudeau’s Resignation and a Leadership Contest
If Trudeau resigns but says he’s staying in office while a leadership race takes place, it could provide continuity in government. However, "a politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump," Nanos said.
The Challenges of a Liberal Leadership Race
A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run — under different circumstances, it would take even longer. Even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time, maybe only weeks, before being thrown into a national campaign.
The Outlook for the Liberal Party in 2025
Regardless, the Liberal Party — which has dominated Canadian federal politics since the Second World War — faces a difficult road ahead. Even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion just to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
The Bottom Line
Justin Trudeau’s decision on when to step down as Prime Minister will have far-reaching consequences for the Liberal Party and Canadian politics. As Nik Nanos so aptly put it, "It very well may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election."